In the financial world, the CBOE Volatility Index, better known as the “fear index” or simply VIX, is a measurement of the likelihood of upcoming erratic behavior in the stock market.

Since the 1990s, VIX has been offering a 30-day forward-looking projection of volatility in the markets, a microcosm of economic uncertainty. And as you might expect, the index has been on a rollercoaster ride this year. When President Donald Trump called for sweeping tariffs in April, VIX spiked to levels we haven’t seen since the early pandemic (and only a few ticks below those of the 2008 housing crisis).

Around that time, I began to notice some folks on the Internet, a lot of them in the financial world, pointing out a cosmic irony of sorts about VIX — how, if you squint, the peaks and valleys of the index over the last several years bear a striking resemblance to Donald Trump’s signature. Take a look for yourself:

It was a silly coincidence, sure, but the observation masked an objective truth: Volatility has become synonymous with the Trump economic agenda, particularly in the early months of his second term in office. Consider the staggering amount of events, policies, and priorities tied to the White House in one way or another which have seeded confusion and concern about the economy: DOGE, Liberation Day tariffs, the Republican Megabill, and now the threat of rising oil prices due to the Iran-Israel-U.S. conflict, despite a tenuous ceasefire in place.

“It’s a complete mess out there,” Mark Zandi, the chief economist at Moody’s, said on a recent episode of his podcast Inside Economics.

Beyond the anxiety and confusion, however, there have already been tangible effects on Philly. For starters, the Trump administration has frozen or cut more than $280 million in federal grants that were originally en route to Philly organizations, including cancer researchers, gun violence prevention groups, and food banks.

But if there’s one sector that does not need another blow right now, it’s housing.

Kicking a situation when it’s down

Nationwide, homebuying has dipped to its lowest levels since the mid-1990s, even as rental prices keep soaring. Many of the contributing factors predate the current White House, but the Trump agenda has yet to improve a troubling situation. Over the past few months, building materials have grown more expensive (due to tariffs), the labor supply has shrunk (deportations), and the Department of Housing and Urban Development has been put to the chopping block. (Trump is proposing a $33 billion, 40 percent budget cut for HUD, which would effectively end Section 8 and other voucher programs.)

In Philly, the turmoil arrives at a pivotal moment — for Mayor Cherelle Parker, and the city’s long-term health. Only a few days before Trump announced his tariffs, Parker rolled out a $2 billion plan to address the city’s “housing crisis.” The Housing Opportunities Made Easy (H.O.M.E.) seeks to build and preserve nearly 30,000 units of low- and moderate-income housing in the next two and a half years. The City plans to issue $800 million in bonds and contribute $1 billion worth of public land in order to reach its goals.

Federal funding is also supposed to be a critical component of the plan. The Parker administration is counting on roughly $200 million from state and federal funding sources to put towards the initiative. But now, several of the federal resources they’ve identified in the H.O.M.E. plans are imperiled. Trump seeks to entirely eliminate the Community Development Block Grant program, by far the largest of the federal programs that the H.O.M.E. plan seeks to leverage.

Asked whether federal priorities have resulted in any changes to the H.O.M.E. plan, Parker’s administration had little to say. “We remain hopeful on funding from the federal government to support the life changing housing programs and services for residents,” wrote Jamila Davis, a spokesperson in the Department of Planning and Development.

That response may be more about political expediency than denial. Meanwhile, the ripple effects of Trump’s first six months are already being felt beyond City Hall. Over the long term, Trump’s cuts stand to weaken the social safety net, which could exaggerate the city’s current needs and turn H.O.M.E. into triage.

The Citizen reached out to a few stakeholders in the housing sector to get their perspectives on how the Trump economy is impacting efforts to create more affordable, diverse, and safe housing options throughout the city.

Construction costs through the roof

Mo Rushdy, the president of the Building Industry Association of Philadelphia and a prolific developer in the city with the Riverwards Group, says that construction costs have risen between 15 and 25 percent for his business in the past couple of years, with the President’s tariffs pushing the envelope even further. According to a Lindy Institute report authored by Kevin Gillen and released in June, the price of construction materials increased at roughly twice the rate of general inflation between 2020 and 2024, before jumping another 24% so far in 2025.

At a moment when Mayor Parker has boldly laid out a goal of adding and rehabbing tens of thousands of units during her first term, the downstream effects of White House economic policy could be a hindrance to that goal. “I think you’re going to see an impact in the middle neighborhoods, with pullback [in housing starts] in Center City and the surrounding neighborhoods,” says Rushdy. “I’m typically very optimistic, but I don’t think you’re going to be seeing as many housing starts in the next year.”

In this new world of tariffs, multi-family buildings are especially hard to make economically viable. Rushdy notes that federal interest rates are higher than they were five years ago, and locally, modifications to the 10-year tax abatement (changes which took effect in 2022) have raised costs for developers in comparison to only a few years ago.

“It’s been death by a 1,000 cuts,” he says. With multi-family construction in particular, it’s “hard to pencil out” projects that can realistically turn a profit, given the growing pressures.

“It’s so awful because the government, and government practices in the 20th century, created a lot of the problems we’re dealing with right now,” — Angela McIver, CEO of the Fair Housing Rights Center.

The good news, according to Rushdy, is that solutions exist which could help, if public officials have the will and agreement to enact them. “There are policies on the local level that can make a big difference and to offset some of these increased costs,” he says. On Rushdy’s wish list: reform of zoning requirements for parking, a robust overlay for Transit Oriented Development, and changes to the Land Bank’s frustrating disposition rules. Angela Brooks, who is Mayor Parker’s housing czar, said during The Citizen’s latest Development … for Good event that several of those policy areas are under consideration.

At the very least, the mayor’s H.O.M.E plan should offset some of the issues that stem from federal policy. Whether it will be enough to change the housing landscape remains to be seen.

HUD Havoc

Among the first casualties of DOGE was the Fair Housing Initiative Program (FHIP), a robust initiative designed to reduce housing discrimination across the country. In February, the government froze $30 million in grants that were previously awarded to dozens of nonprofits and organizations. Those grantees included the Fair Housing Rights Center in Southeast Pennsylvania, which was awarded a $425,000 annually grant.

“It’s so awful because the government, and government practices in the 20th century, created a lot of the problems we’re dealing with right now,” says Angela McIver, CEO of the Fair Housing Rights Center.

FHIP was a dedicated effort to address redlining and other forms of discrimination. For the past few months, McIver and colleagues have been scrambling to find alternative funding streams for the work — which includes responding to consumer complaints, serving as a watchdog for illegal lending practices, and working directly with jurisdictions. But McIver worries about the long-term impact of the federal government “sending fair-housing advocates back in time” with these grant cancellations.

“Not knowing the future of FHIP for the next year or two or three, it puts the onus squarely on the state government and local government,” she says. “The impact is severe.”

Beyond HUD

For generations, the Philadelphia Energy Solutions refinery in Grays Ferry — once the largest refinery on the East Coast, which closed permanently in 2019 — loomed over the neighborhood in more ways than one. Physically, the refinery spewed carcinogens that led to poor health outcomes for residents, but it also contributed to a cycle of poverty in the neighborhood.

Since the refinery’s closure, Grays Ferry has received an uptick in public and private funding (like the spanking-new Vare Recreation Center) to improve the well-being of residents. In November 2024, the Environmental Protection Agency awarded a $20 million grant for a two-phase project in Grays Ferry. One phase called for the creation of a Community Resilience Hub — a multi-use facility that would serve as a green jobs training site for local residents and a community cooling center — while the other phase made investments in affordable housing.

Through the grant, 189 properties were set to receive critical repairs and weatherizations, which are often out of the financial reach of homeowners in Grays Ferry. Three local nonprofits — the Energy Coordinating Agency (ECA), Habitat Philadelphia, and Philly Thrive — had been partnering on the project until April, when DOGE terminated their grant.

“Grays Ferry is one of the most neglected, underserved communities in the poorest big city in the nation,” says Steve Luxton, CEO of ECA. “This was about preserving homeownership in the community.”

According to Luxton, the nonprofit partners had already begun identifying homeowners in need of repairs when DOGE blew it all up. While ECA is actively seeking out funding alternatives in order to deliver on some of the program, the program is stalled for now. For a community whose housing has been challenged by a lack of government resources in the past, Luxton says, “the high level of need remains.”

Designers at a deficit

Philadelphia’s arts and design community have also stepped up to help with the city’s affordable housing needs. But in May, federal cuts abruptly curtailed one of those efforts, an inaugural Accessory Dwelling Unit (ADU) Design Competition.

Last year, the Community Design Collaborative (CDC) received a $53,000 grant from the National Endowment for the Arts to carry out the competition. Accessory Dwelling Units (ADUs), such as a casita or a converted garage, are small standalone units that exist on the same lot as a single-family home. In recent years, urban planners and affordable housing advocates have promoted ADUs as an underutilized solution to improve the density (and thereby, the availability and affordability) of housing.

According to Tya Winn, the executive director of CDC and a housing expert in her own right, zoning regulations and NIMBY skepticism have gotten in the way of ADU adoption in Philly. After years of working on the issue, Winn and CDC had the idea of creating an international design competition to bring more ADUs here. The awarded NEA grant — $53,000 in total — was supposed to pay for a 6-to-8-month-long community engagement process, where designers would meet with residents in areas like Roxborough and Germantown, to gain their input on the ADUs design.

“The competition was going to be steeped in real opinions, real thoughts, and real desires of actual Philadelphians,” says Winn.

Then, on May 2, CDC received a letter — along with arts and culture organizations around the country, after millions of dollars worth of grants were slashed — that said the remaining $30,000 in funds for the competition would be cancelled.

Winn called the revocation of funding (which CDC is appealing) “a tragedy for lower and middle-income Philadelphia residents” and one that will remove a housing solution for seniors, especially in Black and Latino communities. “ADUs are a tangible way to provide housing options in our neighborhoods … so this loss will be felt collectively.”

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