Next month’s midterm elections could hand Democrats control of Pennsylvania’s government for the first time in three decades, opening the door to gun reform bills that Republicans have long blocked.

[This story was originally published by The Trace, a nonprofit newsroom covering gun violence in America. Sign up for its newsletters here.]

Political pundits in the state believe Democrats have their best chance in decades to win a governing trifecta — control of both chambers of the Legislature and the governor’s office. They point to President Donald Trump’s historically low job approval numbers, the sagging economy, and growing uncertainty over the rise of artificial intelligence and data centers. Gun safety advocates believe a Democratic takeover will lead to legislative reforms they’ve sought for years.

“These life-saving policies would get fair hearings and discussions and advance to the governor’s desk, and that would be significant because it would align the Legislature with where the public is on this issue — overwhelmingly in support of gun violence prevention policies,” says Adam Garber, executive director of CeaseFirePA, a nonprofit that works to end gun violence through education and advocacy.

Democrats need to pick up three seats to secure the state Senate. They are also looking to expand their narrow majority in the House. If they succeed in November, they could have the votes to pass major gun restrictions. Among their priorities:

• Expanding background checks: House Democrats want to require background checks for more types of gun purchases. They passed a bill to do so last year, but it has yet to receive a vote in the Senate.

• Passing a red flag law: Democrats have pushed for legislation allowing family members and law enforcement to ask a court to temporarily remove guns from someone deemed a danger to themselves or others. The House approved a red flag law — also known as an extreme risk protection order law — in 2023, but the Senate never followed suit. The House narrowly defeated a similar measure in 2025.

• Outlawing machine gun conversion devices: Last year, a proposal to ban devices that enable handguns to fire up to 1,200 rounds per minute came within one vote of passing the House.

• Banning ghost guns: A measure to prohibit the manufacture, sale, and possession of homemade, untraceable “ghost guns” cleared the House in 2024, only to die in the Senate. Democrats tried again in 2025, but the bill fell one vote short in the House.

State Representative Morgan Cephas, a Democrat from Philadelphia who co-sponsored the ghost guns ban, said she is planning to introduce a similar bill next year. If Democrats prevail in the midterms, “we’ll be able to have a real conversation about gun control,” Cephas says. “Safe communities start with investing in neighborhoods, investing in resources, and investing in anti-violence organizations. But it also means getting the guns off of our streets.”

Berwood Yost, a political science professor and director of the Center for Opinion Research at Franklin and Marshall College in Lancaster, says this year feels different from past elections, when predictions of a Democratic takeover failed to materialize. Several competitive races, the national political climate, and Democratic Governor Josh Shapiro’s commanding lead in his reelection bid could all help the party wrest control.

But Yost is skeptical that Shapiro, whom he views as moderate and pragmatic, would make the politically charged issue of gun reform a top priority. Without the governor’s support, Democrats in the Legislature could struggle to advance their agenda.

“All of the common-sense gun violence prevention measures that voters have supported for years will finally become law in Pennsylvania.” — Brittany Campsie

“If they take control, they will undoubtedly change the direction of state policy in a number of areas,” Yost says. “Whether that’s guns first or guns last, I don’t know.”

In a statement to The Trace, Shapiro’s office said the governor backs the gun reform measures Democrats are seeking. “Shapiro supports these bipartisan bills that empower families and Pennsylvania law enforcement — and he is committed to building a broad coalition to support commonsense gun safety reform,” the statement said.

Knocking on doors for — and against — gun laws

To pass tighter gun laws, Democrats will likely need to capture the Senate, a chamber they have not controlled since 1993. Brittany Crampsie, a spokesperson for the Pennsylvania Senate Democratic Committee, stresses that her party is doing all that it can to turn out voters.

“We knocked on 300,000 doors. We’re not taking anything for granted,” she says. “But the environment is ripe. All of the common-sense gun violence prevention measures that voters have supported for years will finally become law in Pennsylvania. It’s as simple as that.”

Gun rights advocates, meanwhile, see the prospect of a Democratic takeover as a threat, says Val Finnell, Pennsylvania director of Gun Owners of America. “We’re well aware that a Democrat trifecta would basically put the Philadelphia Democrats in charge of the Pennsylvania Legislature, so we’re really involved in elections right now to prevent that from happening,” he says, adding that any laws restricting access to guns enacted after the election will be fought “tenaciously.”

Even as Democrats work to flip the Senate, they are also campaigning to pick up more seats in the House. A spokesperson for Democratic House candidates, Sydney Robinson, said among the party’s top targets is Valerie Gaydos, a Republican representative from a Pittsburgh suburb who has consistently opposed tighter gun laws.

Gaydos did not respond to requests for comment. Her Democratic challenger, Hadley Haas, has made curbing gun violence a central part of her platform. Haas says she got involved in politics following the December 2012 Sandy Hook Elementary School massacre in Connecticut that left six adults and 20 first-graders dead.

“My kids were the same age as the kids who were killed at Sandy Hook, and that’s when I started calling elected officials and asking them to take meaningful action to keep our kids and our communities safe,” Haas, a mother of two, told The Trace.

After the shooting, Haas joined the advocacy group Moms Demand Action, which advocates stricter gun laws. [Moms Demand Action is part of Everytown for Gun Safety, which provides financial support to The Trace.]

Haas first challenged Gaydos in 2024, losing by 7 percentage points. She decided to run again after three gun reform bills fell one vote short of passing the House last fall.

“To me, gun safety has always been an issue that should have bipartisan support,” she says. “There should be more productive conversations about this legislation. It really frustrates me when elected leaders … don’t do the work to bring people together.”

Mensah Dean is a staff writer at The Trace. Previously he was a staff writer on the Justice & Injustice team at The Philadelphia Inquirer, where he focused on gun violence, corruption and wrongdoing in the public and private sectors for five years. Dean also covered criminal courts, public schools and city government for the Philadelphia Daily News, The Inquirer’s sister publication.

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