At first glance, the outlook for adult-use marijuana in Pennsylvania appears less certain than just a few months ago.

Republican leaders in Harrisburg spent the early months of 2025 poo-pooing many of the ideas that Democratic colleagues and Governor Josh Shapiro have been kicking around:

       Listen to the audio edition of this story here:

• “I don’t see any path whatsoever,” Senate Appropriations Committee Chair Scott Martin (R) said during an interview in March, responding to the Governor’s proposed path for legalization, some details of which were included in his latest budget proposal.
• Senate Majority leader Joe Pittman (R), in February, threw cold water on the idea that criminal expungements of past convictions of low-grade marijuana crimes — a core piece of what the Democrats and the Governor have said will be included in a law — would pass muster with his caucus. “I certainly am not in the mindset that we need to be going back into expungements of convictions that have already occurred,” Pittman said.
• Meanwhile, House Minority Leader Jesse Topper referred to Shapiro’s revenue model for adult-use marijuana as “a gimmicky tax” and said that it would not bring in the promised revenue.

Based on those comments alone, you can understand why a legalization bill for adult-use marijuana (also known as recreational weed) has not yet been put to a vote in either chamber.

Republicans remain essential to passing a law, despite their litany of concerns. At a minimum, three conservative legislators need to join with Dems in the Senate, where the math looks more precarious than in 2024. One of the party’s biggest champions of legalization, former state senator Mike Regan, chose not to seek reelection in the fall — leaving just one surefire supporter in the GOP’s senate caucus.

Of course, that also assumes that Democrats can finally reach a consensus in the House, where they hold a 101-100 edge — an agreement that is far from assured (as the Citizen wrote about last year). So yeah, the vibes in Harrisburg are not ideal right now.

But here’s the thing. Despite the headwinds facing legalization, the opposition is mostly just rhetoric. “They’re not saying ‘no’ to the idea [of legalization] in and of itself,” says Representative Emily Kinkead, a Democrat from the Pittsburgh area who introduced one of the only bipartisan bills for recreational weed last session. “I think it’s a great indicator that there’s so many people talking about it, including the negative comments. They’re saying the proposal isn’t what they want it to be, but they’re not saying ‘no’ in any of it.”

“Somebody’s got to move. Pass a bill in one of the chambers. Look around. Half the country has already done this. I don’t know what they’re waiting for.” — Tony Payton Jr., former PA Rep., now cannabis entrepreneur

One way to think about the amplification of criticism related to recreational weed — in the “all press is good press” sort of way — is that the state’s most influential politicians are all talking about it these days. Whether it’s Governor Shapiro or the aforementioned Republicans, marijuana is a centerpiece of the conversation in Harrisburg, and a key to ongoing budget negotiations. Supporters continue to believe that the prospects are solid for getting a deal done.

“I think we’re closing in on getting to a place where we can all have a conversation and get this across the finish line.” says Kinkead. “We are substantially closer than we were a year ago, or even six months ago.”

Though PA has been slow to adopt adult-use marijuana, the writing is on the wall: Public support continues to climb across the Commonwealth, with independent poll numbers indicating that nearly two-thirds of Pennsylvanians are in favor of legalization. Other polls point to a majority of people in both parties being in favor. As the states around us with an adult-use industry expand — West Virginia is the only neighbor that hasn’t legalized it — the lost opportunity of raking in hundreds of millions of dollars in tax revenue will be too much for politicians to resist.

If the political reality surrounding adult-use marijuana is not an if, but when, scenario, then the question we need to be asking, collectively across PA, is: How do we do this smartly?

Is recreational weed a PA inevitability?

There’s no doubt that a degree of inertia exists when it comes to recreational weed. It’s been vigorously debated for multiple years now in the capital. There have been exploratory hearings to learn about both the mistakes and best practices from elsewhere in the country (and from Canada, where they sell marijuana through government-controlled stores, as some legislators would have it here in our state). Governor Josh Shapiro has not once, but twice, vowed to sign a bill if it reaches his desk.

Tony Payton Jr., a former state representative-turned-cannabis entrepreneur, is one person who’s grown tired of inaction. “We’ve had a lot of talk about this — for years — but somebody’s got to move,” he says. “Pass a bill in one of the chambers. Look around. Half the country has already done this. I don’t know what they’re waiting for.”

There’s another potential path to legalization, one that’s been outlined by members of the Republican opposition. “If [Shapiro] wants something done, he needs to lead on it,” said Senator Kim Ward to Spotlight PA in February. “He can’t throw an idea out there, which he did last year, and say, Let the legislature figure it out, I’ll sign it.”

In fact, that’s exactly what Shapiro has been doing of late. The lack of legislative movement hasn’t stopped the Governor from accelerating his promises about what adult-use marijuana could do for the state. His first mention of marijuana appeared much earlier in his 2025 budget address — 5,170 words higher, to be exact — in comparison to his speech last year, while he offered his most full-throated endorsement of the policy to date.

“I want to be real with you — as a father of four, and as the former chief law enforcement officer of this Commonwealth, this one was hard for me,” Shapiro said. “But I took the time to study it and understand the impacts. Letting this business operate in the shadows doesn’t make sense.”

Shapiro is a valuable messenger for this issue. Outside of his high approval rating, he is a voice of moderation, a true skeptic-turned-believer. On the other hand, Shapiro’s endorsement has not been met with high praise. His budget proposal forecasts a whopping $536.5 million in year one revenue from adult-use marijuana, a major escalation from last year when the administration was projecting a mere $15 million for the same number.

“The reality is that if we do this right, everybody’s gonna walk away from the table slightly dissatisfied.” — PA Rep. Emily Kinkead

What’s changed? Shapiro has outlined a tax structure for the new industry that includes a one time “conversion fee” of $25 million for medical marijuana licensees which would allow them to begin operating in the recreational market. Those conversion fees account for roughly 95 percent of his revenue projection in the first year, although the state predicts annual tax revenue of about $250 million by the end of the fifth year.

People outside of the administration have been quick to question that math. When the state’s Independent Fiscal Office did an analysis of the Governor’s budget proposal, they estimated that only four companies would actually pay a fee of that size. As a result, the IFO projected nearly $400 million less in year-one revenue compared to the Shapiro budget.

“I think it’s important that if our strategy is going to center around revenue, that we’re being genuine about putting good numbers into the equation, so that we’re getting good numbers out of the equation,” says Meredith Buettner, executive director of the Pennsylvania Cannabis Coalition, PA’s top advocacy group for marijuana businesses. “There’s probably a handful of companies [in the medical market of PA] that could strike a $25 million check, but no matter how you draw it up, there’s no scenario where enough companies can pay $25 million in one fiscal year to bring in $500 million.”

There’s an obvious reason to fixate on the potential revenue. At this time last year, PA had a $14 billion surplus in the state’s coffers. Now that it’s set to run dry in the near future, everyone is looking for new money — the Governor more than anyone.

But there are reasons beyond money to consider legalization, too, such as social justice and economic development. If those aren’t prioritized as well, and then carefully structured in a bill, adult-use marijuana could easily be a political failure for all parties involved.

Like Tony Payton Jr. said last year, “It’s inevitable that an adult-use bill passes in PA, but what it looks like, and if it’s good for people who have been over-policed, is an open question.”

Reason for caution

What’s happened in other states is a legitimate reason for a cautious approach in Harrisburg. Most states that have legalized recreational weed have come up substantially short on their own revenue projections. But the bigger letdown for advocates has been the failure to provide benefits to communities harmed by the “War on Drugs,” a major selling point of these laws.

In New York, a legalization bill with the intentions of doing just that ended up going badly awry. The state implemented a waiting period (of up to three years) for large medical marijuana operators, believing it would allow so-called “social equity” entrepreneurs — people from communities severely harmed by the war on drugs, who received discounted licenses — to gain an exclusive foothold in the adult-use market.

Instead, large companies sued and stalled the entire program. Then, a resurgent black market quickly began siphoning tax revenue from the state. Somewhere between 2,000 and 8,000 unlicensed dispensaries — no longer fearing prosecution, because the state’s law decriminalized sales of the plant — opened up shop, filling a consumer demand. And by the time the state fixed some major issues with its support programs for social equity entrepreneurs, the intended beneficiaries hardly had a first-mover advantage.

That’s just one cautionary tale. Supporters of adult-use marijuana in Harrisburg have been motivated to create a bill that sets a new national standard for marijuana reform, succeeding where New York and other states have failed.

“Let’s not balance the budget on the backs of businesses that employ tens of thousands of people in Pennsylvania and are serving almost a half a million patients with medicine.” — Meredith Buettner, Pennsylvania Cannabis Coalition

Kinkead and others on the forefront of the issue have promised to use the law as a vehicle for economic development and social justice, trying to achieve all of the following in one fell swoop: expunging previous low-level marijuana convictions, creating long-term business opportunities for residents of overpoliced neighborhoods, generating jobs for rural and urban workers, and granting the existing operators in the state’s medical-marijuana industry to immediately begin selling in the expanded market — if they’re willing to pay a fee.

As proposed, though, Shapiro’s $25 million fee for entry has the risk of hobbling the local impact of legalization. Buettner points out that the adult-use marijuana market is expected to employ more than 30,000 people in Pennsylvania, roughly doubling the amount of jobs that already exist within medical marijuana. Plus, those opportunities are distributed throughout the state, ranging from retail workers in Philly to farmers in Crawford County. PA is not exactly oozing with new industries of the same magnitude that are ready to move in.

“Let’s not balance the budget on the backs of businesses that employ tens of thousands of people in PA and are serving almost a half a million patients with medicine,” says Buettner, referring to the relatively high taxes and conversion feeds being proposed in the Shapiro budget. In other words, it’d be best to frame the pitch around the people, not tax revenue which may never materialize.

Right now, the medical marijuana industry in PA is dominated by out-of-state corporations. And the more that big businesses headquartered outside of PA are set up to do the same with recreational weed, the more likely that consumers will have fewer choices, higher prices and face a greater risk when it comes to overconsumption. Meanwhile, communities most severely impacted by the War on Drugs, as well as small farmers, could have a harder time directly benefiting.

“We have to make sure that it’s realistic to get these stores up and running,” says Kinkead. “We also have to make sure that people harmed by the criminalization of cannabis are able to get into the market and benefit from its legalization.”

Reconciling all of those priorities in a divided state government is no easy task. Can legislators find a way to do that before this budget season comes to an end in June? It would take a massive meeting of the minds among people with different priorities — from Shapiro to social justice-minded progressives to hesitant fiscal conservatives. One thing it would accomplish: satisfying the will of the public — including the majority of voters in plenty of red districts, according to polling.

If Democrats can get their act together and agree on the structure of a bill, Payton Jr. believes that it could put opponents in a bind. “It would force them to get in line with where their constituents are at,” he says.

Kinkead says that committee approval in the House for a revamped version of her bill could come by the end of April, triggering a showdown with the whole legislature. To get there, though, would require some sacrifices from various parts of her caucus — including, perhaps, the governor. “The reality is that if we do this right, everybody’s gonna walk away from the table slightly dissatisfied,” she says.

MORE ON LEGALIZING MARIJUANA FROM THE CITIZEN